Does Investor Concern About Being Overly Focused on the U.S. Create Opportunities in the U.S.?-Barry G. Moss
Investor behavior often shifts most dramatically when fear sets in. Lately, that fear has coalesced around concerns about U.S. policy uncertainty — especially surrounding tariffs and taxes — causing many advisors to recommend pivoting capital overseas. But in doing so, are we overlooking long-term opportunities forming right under our feet?
The U.S.: A Market in Flux
We are currently witnessing a deceleration in enthusiasm for U.S.-based investments. The dollar’s recent weakness and mixed messaging from Washington have intensified calls for global diversification. Understandably, when the domestic environment appears uncertain, looking abroad feels prudent. However, for investors who are disciplined and patient, these kinds of dislocations can serve not as warnings — but as invitations.
Shifting Capital = Emerging Value
Large shifts in global capital allocation often trigger ripple effects in valuation — especially in illiquid, research-heavy sectors like real estate and infrastructure. When capital exits a market en masse, it doesn’t necessarily reflect a decline in fundamental value — it often reveals a short-term mismatch between sentiment and price. That’s where deep due diligence becomes a superpower. In underweighted markets like parts of the U.S., smart investors can uncover mispricings and inefficiencies that others have overlooked or deemed too volatile to touch.
Foreign Currency Advantage and Domestic Hesitation
Increased purchasing power from stronger foreign currencies, when paired with weakened local demand, can result in prime U.S. assets being priced at effective discounts for international investors. Yet these same assets, underappreciated by domestic capital, remain available to those who are not swayed by herd behavior. This scenario creates a fertile ground for contrarian, long-term strategies that bet not against the U.S. — but on its inevitable recalibration.
Signaling Strength: EQT and the Influence of Leading Institutions
When a well-respected global firm like EQT considers ramping up U.S. exposure, it sends a powerful message. Not just about the attractiveness of U.S. assets, but also about the underlying resilience and long-term potential of the American economic engine. Such institutional moves tend to reset narratives. They serve as permission slips — first for international capital to test the waters, and then for hesitant domestic investors to re-enter with renewed conviction.
Through the Fog, Clarity for the Patient
The caution currently surrounding the U.S. investment landscape is understandable — but it may also be shortsighted. For investors who can see past the policy noise and currency volatility, the resulting vacuum of capital could reveal pricing inefficiencies rarely found in more favored markets.
In a world so often driven by momentum and perception, contrarian value rarely calls out loudly. But when it does appear, it tends to do so in moments just like this.
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